Tag Archives: ISIS

Islamic State Obituary for French Jihadist Fabien Clain

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 16 March 2019

Fabien Clain, Al-Naba 173, page 9

The U.S.-led Coalition against the Islamic State (IS) announced on 28 February that it had killed Fabien Clain (Abu Anas al-Firansi), a French citizen. Clain and his brother, Jean-Michel (Abu Uthman), were targeted by a Coalition airstrike in Baghuz, the final pocket of the “caliphate” in eastern Syria, on 20 February. It was unclear what happened to Jean-Michel, though the 173rd edition of IS’s newsletter, Al-Naba, published on 14 March, says (pp. 9-10) that he was killed a few days after Fabien. Continue reading

If America is to Stay in Syria, What For?

This article was published at Ahval

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 12 March 2019

The wheel turns again. After U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria in December, it seemed rapprochement with Turkey was on the cards. Now that looks less likely. Continue reading

Islamic State Urges Defiance as the Caliphate Collapses, Attacks Other Islamists

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 9 March 2019

Al-Naba 172 front page

The Islamic State (IS) released the 172nd edition of Al-Naba, its newsletter, on 7 March 2019. Continue reading

Islamic State Says the West Has Admitted the Group Cannot Be Defeated

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 4 March 2019

Front page of Al-Naba 170

The 170th edition of Al-Naba, the Islamic State (IS) newsletter, was produced on 21 February 2019. Its main editorial on page 3 focused on the organisation’s apparent “inability to surrender”. Continue reading

The Unravelling of a Guided Islamic State Plot in Russia

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 26 February 2019

Islamic State terrorists responsible for the Danghara attack in Tajikistan, July 2018 [source]

Kommersant reports on the FSB foiling a series of guided plots by the Islamic State (IS) in late 2016. The IS guide in these cases was a Tajik, Tojiddin Nazarov (Abu Usama Noraki). Had IS’s operations been successful, they would have blown up the headquarters of Russian military intelligence (GRU) on the Khoroshevskoye Highway, as well as railway passengers. Continue reading

The Islamic State Newsletter Explains How it Killed American Soldiers in Syria

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 12 February 2019

Al-Naba 165, page 4

In the 165th edition of Al-Naba, the weekly newsletter of the Islamic State (IS), was released on 17 January 2019. Al-Naba 165 contained a description of the suicide bombing at the Qasr al-Omara restaurant in Minbij, northern Syria, on 16 January, which killed four Americans: Army Chief Warrant Officer Jonathan Farmer; Navy Chief Petty Officer Shannon Kent; Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) civilian Scott Wirtz; and Pentagon contractor and linguist Ghadir Taher. At least ten other people were killed, eight civilians and two officials from the “Syrian Democratic Forces“ (SDF). The newsletter also contains an interview with an IS official operating in the Minbij area, who explains how the group’s sleeper cells and surveillance apparatus tracked U.S. movements and made prior attempts to attack the U.S. and its allies. Continue reading

The Folly of Trying to Buy Assad’s Loyalty From Iran

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 5 February 2019

Bashar al-Assad meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Damascus, Syria, 3 September 2018 // SANA handout to REUTERS

The Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad has nearly collapsed twice under pressure from the armed insurrection, in late 2012 and early 2015. On both occasions, Assad was rescued by outside powers, first Iran and then a joint Iranian-Russian operation. It has been a recurring illusion that there is or will be, a strategic split between Russia and Iran. This prospect has continued to tantalise the US and others, and occasional Moscow-Tehran disagreements are presented as evidence that dynamics are shifting this way. Another round of such speculation is currently underway. Continue reading

Can Russia Reconcile Turkey and Syria?

This article was published at Ahval under the headline, “Back to the Future for Turkey and Syria?”

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 1 February 2019

American base on the outskirts of Minbij, 26 December 2018. (Photo by Delil souleiman / AFP)

U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that U.S. troops would be withdrawn from Syria came with many visible costs. The benefits the anti-Islamic State (ISIS) campaign has delivered to Syrian President Bashar Assad, Iran, and Russia were made permanent. There is also more space for ISIS and greater instability in northeast Syria as Turkey confronts Syrian Kurdish forces. And there is the political cost to the United States of leaving its Kurdish anti-ISIS partner to face Turkey and the pro-Assad coalition alone. Continue reading

Israel Returns to Africa

Published at The Arab Weekly

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 27 January 2019

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Chadian President Idriss Deby meeting in N’Djamena, 20 January 2019 [AFP]

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Chad have been restored after a half century of separation. This was a symbolic breakthrough with a Muslim-majority African country, albeit one in the works for some time. It is an illumination of Israel’s changed geopolitical circumstances, some aspects sustainable, some more wishful and illusory.
Continue reading

The Consequences of American Withdrawal from Syria

A version of this article was published at CapX

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 21 December 2018

President Trump in a Twitter video saying fallen soldiers agree with his plan to withdraw from Syria, 19 December 2018 [image source]

“We have won against ISIS”, declared President Donald Trump in a Twitter video on Wednesday night. “We’ve taken back the land. And now it’s time for our troops to come back home.” After a day of reporting that the United States has decided on a rapid, total withdrawal from Syria, here was the confirmation. It is a policy course fraught with danger and very likely to lead to outcomes unfavourable to Western interests, whether defined in humanitarian or strategic terms.
Continue reading