By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 12 July 2018
American troops look out toward the border with Turkey from a small outpost near the town of Minbij, 7 Feb. 2018 (AP Photo/Susannah George)
As Turkey moves past last month’s election, the foreign policy challenges remain acute, particularly in Syria, and there is a looming confrontation with the United States over sanctions on Iran that might undo the recent progress toward the normalisation of U.S.-Turkish relations. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 3 July 2018
Message on the death of Hudayfa al-Badri, released by the Islamic State, 3 July 2018
At around 21:00 on 3 July 2018, in the middle of England’s World Cup match with Colombia, news broke that a son of Islamic State’s leader, Ibrahim al-Badri (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi), had been killed in Homs, western Syria. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 7 June 2018
Turkish soldiers and their rebel dependencies in Efrin, 18 March 2018 // AFP
On June 24, for the first time in 15 years, there seems a possibility, however faint, that elections in Turkey will end in defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
It is an uphill battle, not least because of the ongoing state of emergency after the 2016 attempted coup, which has exacerbated the systemic biases against Erdoğan’s political opponents. But the Turkish opposition has managed to overcome its own fractiousness and has a strategic game-plan that makes sense. One card Erdoğan still has to play is foreign policy, and there are signs in Syria and Iraq of advantageous news to come. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 30 May 2018
Russian president Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i meeting in Tehran, Iran, 1 Nov. 2017 // Picture via Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader
There have been renewed claims that Russia and Iran, while both supporting Bashar Assad’s regime, have such differences in vision and interest in Syria that there is a schism Western policymakers can take advantage of.
The basic notion is to work with Moscow, which has a less maximalist position, to limit the influence of Iran, a more disruptive power that could draw in worried regional countries to a wider war. This idea is not new and remains illusory. Russia is powerless—even if it were willing—to restrain Iran, the dominant force driving the regime coalition’s war. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 25 May 2018
Al-Naba 132
The Islamic State released the 132nd edition of Al-Naba, its newsletter, on 18 May. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 23 May 2018
Said Afandi al-Chirkawi (image source)
The Islamic State (IS) laid claim, in two recent issues of its newsletter, Al-Naba, to three recent attacks in Russia. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 16 May 2018
Skandinaviska Förbundet (Scandinavian League) fighters in Syria, where they fought under Russian command // Picture via Skandinavisk Frihet
The Norwegian news portal AldriMer reported on 11 May about a group of far-Right Scandinavians who fought under Russian command for the pro-regime coalition in Syria.
AldriMer was relaying an interview published last month by Skandinavisk Frihet (Scandinavian Freedom), a website that describes itself as attached to the Skandinaviska Förbundet (Scandinavian League), a far-Right group based primarily in Sweden. The interview is with a member of Skandinaviska Förbundet who fought in Syria. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 14 May 2018
United Nations in East Ghouta, Syria (image source)
At best, the United Nations has been impotent as Syria was destroyed. But when the U.N.’s role is examined more closely it looks more like a collaborator, than a bystander, to that destruction. Continue reading
A version of this article was published in CapX
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) and James Snell on 8 May 2018
The Barzeh chemical weapons facility in Damascus, Syria, demolished by U.S. cruise missiles on 14 April 2018 (image source)
The United States and its allies, Britain and France, launched over 100 missiles at the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad in the early hours of 14 April. This was retaliation for the regime’s use of poison gas in the town of Douma, east of the capital, Damascus, exactly a week earlier, which massacred at least 43 people and wounded 500 more. The military strikes were an important signal and will likely be some deterrent against the future use of chemical weapons in Syria, but ultimately this was another missed opportunity by the West to meaningfully affect the course of the war. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 5 May 2018
Syrians being deported from East Ghuta after the regime conquest, 15 March 2018 // Credit Louai Beshara, Agence France-Presse
There has been an unprecedented wave of assassinations, and assassination attempts, in Idlib, beginning on 26 April and lasting about two days, targeting mainstream, Free Syrian Army-branded rebels, opposition activists, and journalists, as well as Islamist and jihadist insurgents.
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