By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 12 July 2018
American troops look out toward the border with Turkey from a small outpost near the town of Minbij, 7 Feb. 2018 (AP Photo/Susannah George)
As Turkey moves past last month’s election, the foreign policy challenges remain acute, particularly in Syria, and there is a looming confrontation with the United States over sanctions on Iran that might undo the recent progress toward the normalisation of U.S.-Turkish relations. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 9 July 2018
After the schism between al-Qaeda and its former Syrian branch, Jabhat al-Nusra (now Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), the remaining al-Qaeda loyalists in the country gathered under the banner of Tandheem Hurras al-Deen (The Religious Guardians’ Organization). Hurras al-Deen has been among those targeted in the wave of assassinations in the “Greater Idlib” area, and has been publicly hereticized by the Islamic State, whose cells are among those conducting the assassinations. Hurras al-Deen in recent days has gained some popularity and legitimacy in Idlib by being the only force to initiate offensive operations against the pro-Asad coalition as the latter conquers Deraa. Today, Hurras al-Deen released a statement through its Sham al-Ribat Media on the loss of ten of its jihadists yesterday after they stepped on a mine near Sarja in southern Idlib. The statement is reproduced below. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 4 July 2018
Egyptian soldiers in the Sinai (image source)
Five years on from the military coup d’etat in Egypt that brought to power Abdel Fattah el Sisi, the problems of the country—political, economic, demographic, security—remain as intractable as ever. Indeed, in many cases, the problems are worse than before. Among the problems that are noticeably worse now than in 2013 is security, specifically the Islamic State (Daesh) insurgency in the Sinai. Continue reading
Book Review: Carter Malkasian, ‘Illusions of Victory’, Oxford University Press, 2017. pp. 280.
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 4 July 2018
Carter Malkasian sets out in Illusions of Victory: The Anbar Awakening and the Rise of the Islamic State to upend the conventional understanding of the campaign against the Islamic State (IS) movement, known at the time as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), in Anbar province of western Iraq. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 3 July 2018
Message on the death of Hudayfa al-Badri, released by the Islamic State, 3 July 2018
At around 21:00 on 3 July 2018, in the middle of England’s World Cup match with Colombia, news broke that a son of Islamic State’s leader, Ibrahim al-Badri (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi), had been killed in Homs, western Syria. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 27 June 2018
Al-Qaeda-linked Telegram channels circulated a surreal statement on 26 June 2018, an “open letter” inviting Roger Federer, the famous Swiss tennis player, to embrace Islam. The text of that statement is reproduced below. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 7 June 2018
Turkish soldiers and their rebel dependencies in Efrin, 18 March 2018 // AFP
On June 24, for the first time in 15 years, there seems a possibility, however faint, that elections in Turkey will end in defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
It is an uphill battle, not least because of the ongoing state of emergency after the 2016 attempted coup, which has exacerbated the systemic biases against Erdoğan’s political opponents. But the Turkish opposition has managed to overcome its own fractiousness and has a strategic game-plan that makes sense. One card Erdoğan still has to play is foreign policy, and there are signs in Syria and Iraq of advantageous news to come. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 2 June 2018
The green buses that have become a symbol of the Syrian regime’s siege and deportation policy (picture source)
The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, set up by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in 2011, released a report on 29 May 2018, “Sieges as a Weapon of War: Encircle, Starve, Surrender, Evacuate”. The report examined the effects of the sieges and “evacuation agreements”—deportations—between November 2012 and April 2018.
The Commission notes that the report is based on “over 400 interviews”, though the Commission continues to struggle in gathering information because it is banned from Syria by Bashar al-Asad’s regime and because of the threat the regime poses to potential interviewees. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 30 May 2018
Russian president Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i meeting in Tehran, Iran, 1 Nov. 2017 // Picture via Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader
There have been renewed claims that Russia and Iran, while both supporting Bashar Assad’s regime, have such differences in vision and interest in Syria that there is a schism Western policymakers can take advantage of.
The basic notion is to work with Moscow, which has a less maximalist position, to limit the influence of Iran, a more disruptive power that could draw in worried regional countries to a wider war. This idea is not new and remains illusory. Russia is powerless—even if it were willing—to restrain Iran, the dominant force driving the regime coalition’s war. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 26 May 2018
Ahmad bin Sa’id al-Amudi (Abu Karam al-Hadrami) // Picture from page 9 of Al-Naba 133 (25 May 2018)
The 133rd edition of the Islamic State’s (IS) weekly newsletter, Al-Naba, was released on 25 May 2018. In Al-Naba, on page nine, there was a profile of Ahmad bin Sa’id al-Amudi (Abu Karam al-Hadrami), a Saudi jihadist who fought for IS and was killed in Yemen. Al-Naba has run obituaries for prominent IS operatives like Mohammed Emwazi (Abu Muharib al-Muhajir), often known as “Jihadi John”, very senior IS officials whose biographies were shrouded in mystery like Abd al-Rahman al-Qaduli (Abu Ali al-Anbari) and Ali Aswad al-Jiburi (Abu Ayman al-Iraqi), as well as completely unknown figures like Abu Sulayman al-Libi. Al-Amudi is in this final category. Continue reading
Kyle Orton's Blog 