By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 29 August 2018
Two ideas that have become quite prevalent are that the Islamic State is defeated or on its way to defeat and that the Syrian war is winding down. Both are gravely mistaken. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 15 August 2018
America’s imposition of sanctions on Turkey brings the relationship to its lowest ebb in more than forty years. Almost as soon as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, came into office in 2002 there have been tensions in the relationship. These manageable differences escalated considerably during the time of President Barack Obama, primarily because of his Syria policy, and now threaten to boil over. The chances to soothe a vital strategic partnership appear to be slipping. Continue reading
A version of this article was published in The Arab Weekly
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 3 August 2018
An Israeli Merkava tank patrols on the border between Israel and Syria, on 20 July 2018. (AFP)
Israel has been conflicted on the Syrian rebellion: some saw Bashar al-Assad’s reliance on Iran and thus favoured his departure; some, especially once the uprising militarized and jihadi-Salafists made their appearance among the insurgents, favoured a let-them-both-lose policy; and some saw the risk of chaos and jihadists and preferred to stick with what they knew.
The official Israeli policy, stated in the early months of the protests, was to side with the people “demonstrating for freedoms” since “the devil we know in Syria [i.e. Assad] is worse than the devil we don’t”. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 3 August 2018
Jeremy Corbyn’s on Iran’s state television station, Press TV, 2012 (source)
The unexpected victory of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic primary in The Bronx in June caused quite a stir, given her membership of the Democratic Socialists of America and her controversial policy positions. Nonetheless, she has been enthusiastically embraced as “the future” by the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Events in Britain suggest Democrats might want to exercise some caution here before they go all in. Continue reading
This article was published at Ahval under the headline, “Russia to Pick Apart NATO Allies to Reconquer All of Syria”.
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 31 July 2018
An Israeli solider hands out water on a bus, during the Syria Civil Defence extraction from the Golan Heights // 22 July 2018, provided by Israeli Army to Reuters
The collapse of the opposition in southern Syria is the final destruction of the originally constituted rebellion against President Bashar Assad. It is also a demonstration that the United States under President Donald Trump is no more invested in shaping the outcome in Syria than his predecessor, and marks the potential end of the diplomatic pact that had allowed Turkey to retain some sphere of influence unmolested by the pro-Syrian government coalition. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 30 May 2018
Russian president Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i meeting in Tehran, Iran, 1 Nov. 2017 // Picture via Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader
There have been renewed claims that Russia and Iran, while both supporting Bashar Assad’s regime, have such differences in vision and interest in Syria that there is a schism Western policymakers can take advantage of.
The basic notion is to work with Moscow, which has a less maximalist position, to limit the influence of Iran, a more disruptive power that could draw in worried regional countries to a wider war. This idea is not new and remains illusory. Russia is powerless—even if it were willing—to restrain Iran, the dominant force driving the regime coalition’s war. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 25 May 2018
Al-Naba 132
The Islamic State released the 132nd edition of Al-Naba, its newsletter, on 18 May. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 13 May 2018
Ayman al-Zawahiri (AFP)
Al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, released a speech today, the ninth edition of his “Brief Messages To A Victorious Ummah”. A transcript of the speech, entitled “Tel Aviv Is Also the Land of Muslims”, evidently timed for the movement of the U.S. Embassy in Israel tomorrow, was released by al-Qaeda’s As-Sahab Media enterprise and is reproduced below. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 22 April 2018
An audio statement by the official spokesman of the Islamic State (IS), Abu Hassan al-Muhajir,[1] was released today. The speech was entitled, “By their example, be guided” or “So From Their Guidance Take An Example”—drawn from Qur’an 6:30. Abu Hassan continued the themes that have been cropping up in IS messaging and propaganda for the last few months that have more firmly reoriented IS away from its foreign attacks campaign toward a more local focus in the Middle East. IS has been stressing its post-caliphate insurgency—concentrated at the present time in Iraq, but with notable operations in Syria—and its war for influence with regional rivals for Muslim loyalty, whether governments such as Egypt and particularly Saudi Arabia, or other Islamist movements like Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya (HAMAS) in Gaza. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 14 April 2018
Negev Desert, Israel (image source)
Al-Riyadh is the leading daily newspaper in Saudi Arabia. While Al-Riyadh’s exact status is contested, there is little doubt it is close to the Saudi government and some identify it as a “semi-official” in the Kingdom. It was therefore very interesting that the paper hosted an opinion editorial by Dr. Ahmad al-Jamiya on 14 April, republished below, which made the case for the House of Saud to make peace with the State of Israel as part of a policy to halt and reverse the Iranian revolution in the Middle East. Continue reading
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