This article was published at Ahval
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 13 November 2018
Joint patrols begin around Manbij (image source)
The United States has taken steps Syria in recent months that suggest a shift towards reconciliation with Turkey. Even if this is so, however, there is still such a deep divide over strategic outlook that these steps could be easily reversed, opening a new round of uncertainty in northern Syria as 2018 draws to a close. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 8 November 2018
As explained in a previous post, Abu Sulayman al-Utaybi, the Chief Judge of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) from early April to late August 2007, has become an important character in many accounts of the history of the Islamic State movement because his abrupt removal from office was followed by his defection from ISI and a journey to Al-Qaeda’s central leadership in Pakistan, where he provided a testimony against his former bosses. If interested in an assessment of that testimony and the whole saga around how it has been used—by Western scholars, Al-Qaeda, and other critics of the Islamic State—check out the prior post. This post reproduces the transcript for what is, as far as I can tell, Abu Sulayman’s first media product for ISI, a twenty-minute video speech released by Al-Furqan Foundation for Media Production on 11 April 2007, entitled, “Why Do We Wage Jihad?”
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 30 October 2018
Istanbul summit, 27 October 2018 (image source)
At Saturday’s summit in Istanbul between Turkey, Russia, France and Germany, the focus was on extending the September 17 Turkey-Russia ceasefire agreement reached in Sochi that spared Idlib a full-scale offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his supporters, and to “progress” on the political track. Continue reading
This article was published at The New Turkey
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 27 October 2018
Today in Istanbul, four governments—Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France—are meeting for a summit over Syria, attempting to consolidate the Sochi Agreement signed by Russia and Turkey over Idlib, and re-invigorate the international political process. There is little reason to think that these talks can succeed on either front. Continue reading
This article was originally published at The Brief
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 26 October 2018
At the beginning of September, New America published a paper, based on recovered al-Qaeda documents, which concluded that there was “no evidence of cooperation” between the terrorist group and the Islamic Republic of Iran. New America’s study lauds itself for taking an approach that “avoids much of the challenge of politicization” in the discussion of Iran’s relationship with al-Qaeda. This is, to put it mildly, questionable.
A narrative gained currency in certain parts of the foreign policy community during the days of the Iraq war, and gained traction since the rise of the Islamic State (IS) in 2014, that Iran can be a partner in the region, at least against (Sunni) terrorism, since Tehran shares this goal with the West. Under President Barack Obama, this notion became policy: the US moved to bring Iran’s revolutionary government in from the cold, to integrate it into the international system. Continue reading
This article was published at Ahval
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 26 October 2018
The Turkish government’s recent record in foreign policy is hardly a success story. It is therefore noteworthy that, so far, Ankara has handled the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi with a singular deftness. Whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can see this through is now the key question. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 26 September 2018
The spokesman for the Islamic State (IS), Abu Hassan al-Muhajir, gave a short speech today, “The Muwahhidin’s Assault on the Tower of the Mushrikin” (The Monotheists’ Assault on the Tower of the Polytheists). Abu Hassan’s speech was further confirmation of IS’s responsibility for the terrorist attack in Iran on 22 September. IS has published an English-language transcript of this speech, which is reproduced below with some editions for transliteration. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 20 September 2018
For about two months, it has seemed that an offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran, and Russia into Idlib was imminent, with disastrous humanitarian and strategic consequences. On Monday, an agreement was reached between Turkey and Russia that put a halt to this prospect, at least for now. There is good reason to think the pro-Assad forces are delaying, rather than cancelling, their plans to reconquer Idlib, but the extra time gives space to Turkey to alter the terms politically. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 11 September 2018
Al-Qaeda’s emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, released a half-hour video speech today, entitled, “How to Confront America”. Al-Zawahiri’s speech mentions in passing the move of the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, but this—and the increasing relations of the Gulf states with the Jewish state—are held to be mere examples of the rot spread by America. Despite the lessening of Christian belief in the West, says Al-Zawahiri, the inhabitants of what was once called Christendom remain “Crusaders” at heart, with a fierce hatred for Islam and Muslims. Perhaps worse than any physical attack on the jihadists, however, is the ideological challenge of America’s secularism, Al-Zawahiri adds. An English transcript of the speech was released by As-Sahab Media and is reprinted below. Continue reading
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 7 September 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned four individuals and five entities connected to the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Asad on 6 September 2018. The most interesting was Muhammad al-Katerji, who has been involved in trade with the Islamic State (IS). A relative of his, Hussam al-Katerji, has previously been revealed as funding the jihadists on behalf of the regime, and the U.S. has previously sanctioned another Kremlin-linked Asad regime oligarch, George Haswani, for financing IS. “The United States will continue to target those who facilitate transactions with the murderous Asad regime and support ISIS”, said U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Continue reading
